Satellite‑based monitoring shows that crude logistics across the Middle East have entered a period of marked instability, as security risks around the Strait of Hormuz increasingly disrupt both tanker mobility and terminal‑level operations. The region’s export system, normally one of the most stable global crude corridors, is exhibiting clear signs of stress across floating storage, onshore inventories, and vessel traffic patterns.
Middle East crude exports fell from 18.7 million bpd in early February to 5.9 million bpd by early March 2026, a 60% quarter‑on‑quarter contraction driven by heightened security threats around the strait, which handles roughly 20% of global crude flows. Around 90 tankers remain stranded across regional waters, according to Wood Mackenzie tracking data, creating involuntary floating storage and reducing available shipping capacity.
Satellite‑observed inventories reinforce these constraints. As of March 20, Ju’Aymah held 21.2 million barrels, 85% of its 25‑million‑barrel operational capacity, while Ras Tanura stored 19.1 million barrels, or 67% of its 28.3‑million‑barrel capacity. These elevated volumes highlight the accumulation of crude at export terminals as outbound flows remain restricted.
Despite the bottlenecks, selective vessel movement continues. The tanker Nora (IMO 9237539) departed Larak Island on March 12 carrying 2,049,982 barrels of crude bound for Ningbo, China, underscoring that only a limited number of cargoes are navigating the disrupted corridor.
Roughly 52 scheduled early‑March loadings failed to reach destinations due to security‑driven delays and cancellations, tightening supply and supporting crude prices. The duration of the disruption will determine whether refiners—particularly in Asia—treat this as a short‑term disturbance or accelerate diversification away from Middle Eastern supply.
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