The Strait of Hormuz has remained effectively closed to commercial traffic since March 1, 2026, removing approximately 20% of global oil supply from the market. Maritime tracking data shows daily vessel transits have collapsed from a historical baseline of 135–138 vessels to 5–6 per day, representing a 95% reduction. Brent crude has risen above $110 per barrel in response to supply constraints.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has implemented a selective transit regime near Larak Island, allowing passage only to vessels from "friendly nations" including China, India, Pakistan, and Iraq, after inspection and, in some cases, payment. This effectively converts the Strait into a geopolitically filtered chokepoint rather than a neutral international waterway.
Wood Mackenzie vessel tracking shows widespread operational disruption:
- Multiple vessels departing Fujairah have switched off AIS transponders ("going dark") to avoid detection or interception
- Ships attempting transit via Omani waters are being intercepted and ordered back by IRGC patrols
- Vessels are displaying erratic routing patterns and prolonged signal gaps
Despite regional instability, the Turkish port of Ceyhan remains one of the few fully functional export hubs in the wider Middle East, continuing to load BTC Blend crude. Only four vessels successfully departed the Turkish terminal in the second half of March (Seaprincess, Ohio, Alatau, Kimolos), compared to typical weekly throughput of 8–12 cargoes.
The combination of prolonged closure, politicized transit access, AIS blackouts, and insurance restrictions indicates this is evolving into a structural supply disruption rather than a short-term event. Asian buyers reliant on Middle East crude, particularly those without favorable political access, face immediate sourcing challenges.
Key variables to monitor: duration of Iranian control, development of alternative export routes (via Oman's Duqm port or expanded Red Sea capacity), and potential coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves. Extended disruption will accelerate crude sourcing diversification toward Atlantic Basin and non-OPEC suppliers, potentially reshaping long-term trade flows and eroding Middle East market share structurally. Additional pressure stems from reported damage to Qatar's LNG infrastructure, compounding energy supply constraints across both crude and gas markets simultaneously.
