Logistics, Not Supply, Set the Clearing Price
US liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports reached approximately 2.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April 2026, the highest level on record. The volume confirms that US supply growth continues to outpace domestic consumption, forcing incremental barrels into export markets even under adverse shipping conditions. Rather than curtailing flows, the export system has absorbed higher freight costs and extended voyage times to maintain clearance into global markets.
The headline volume masks a significant logistical shift. Roughly 40% of US LPG cargoes are now routing via the Cape of Good Hope, bypassing shorter traditional corridors. This reflects persistent geopolitical risk at key chokepoints and altered arbitrage economics across Atlantic and Pacific basins.
Export Activity at Scale
Wood Mackenzie’s US LPG export tracking records close to 970 liftings year-to-date through early May 2026, with monthly activity accelerating:
- January: ~220 liftings
- February: ~195 liftings
- March: ~240 liftings
- April: ~245 liftings
In April, U.S. shipments to India reached a record high, largely driven by the closure of the Strait. Approximately 15 VLGCs departed for India during the month
We expect exports to India to continue to grow as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and even when it's no longer blocked, it will still take time to adjust.
Aziza Dawaher, Senior Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Over half of all liftings are Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs), signalling long-haul economics and sustained Asia-bound trade. The remainder comprises smaller vessels serving regional and niche markets.
The cadence implies a structural run rate exceeding 50 VLGC departures per month from the US Gulf Coast alone, tightening the global VLGC fleet and supporting elevated freight rates even as absolute export volumes continue to rise.
Canadian Exports Add Incremental Supply
Canadian LPG exports from the Pacific Coast provide a complementary flow into Asian markets. Wood Mackenzie tracking shows approximately 32 liftings year-to-date from two active terminals:
- AltaGas Ridley Island (Prince Rupert, British Columbia)
- Pembina Watson Island (Port Edward, British Columbia)
Recent departures include Axis River (1 May), Navigator Ceto (29 April), and Boreal Pioneer (26 April). The Canadian system operates at roughly seven to eight liftings per month, offering a shorter-haul—but limited-scale—alternative to US Gulf Coast supply for Northeast Asian buyers.
Route Displacement and Fleet Effects
The diversion of approximately 40% of US LPG cargoes via the Cape of Good Hope materially extends voyage lengths and reduces effective fleet capacity:
- Longer ballast and laden legs tie up VLGCs for additional weeks per cycle
- Higher freight and bunker costs are absorbed into delivered pricing
- Slower vessel turnaround tightens the fleet without any increase in vessel count
The willingness to accept these penalties confirms that demand remains strong relative to available supply alternatives. LPG flows demonstrate greater resilience than crude or LNG under rerouting conditions: parcel sizes are smaller, storage optionality is higher, and demand flexibility across petrochemical and residential sectors supports longer lead times.
Market Implications
Three conditions are now structurally embedded:
- Effective VLGC shipping capacity is reduced by rerouting, supporting freight rates even as export volumes reach record highs.
- Price formation for Asia-bound US LPG now embeds logistics risk, with the Cape-of-Good-Hope premium becoming a standing feature of delivered cost rather than a temporary surcharge.
- The US export system has proven structurally adaptable, reinforcing its role as the primary global balancer for LPG markets under stress.
Bottom Line
Record US LPG exports at approximately 2.8 mb/d confirm that volumes are not being constrained by geopolitical disruption. Instead, the market is paying for resilience through longer routes and higher logistics costs. Shipping capacity—not production—is now the binding variable in global LPG trade.
