Triple Supply Disruption Tightens Industrial Feedstock Availability
Global sulphur and sulphuric acid supply has contracted following the simultaneous loss of three primary export sources: Middle East Gulf (MEG) flows severed by Hormuz disruption, Chinese sulphuric acid exports halted by government ban, and Russian sulphur removed by export restrictions. Prices for both commodities are rising, with downstream industries, copper smelting, nickel processing, and fertiliser production, facing tightening input costs and limited short-term alternatives.
Wood Mackenzie's analysis of the conflict's impact on sulphur and metals costs, published in March 2026, identified this as a structural constraint. Three months on, the situation has deepened rather than resolved.
Hormuz Activity: Constrained Trade via STS
Wood Mackenzie's waterborne tracking shows over 360 vessel movements at Fujairah and Sohar in recent weeks, with marine fuels accounting for the dominant share followed by fuel oil, naphtha, and diesel. Chemical carrier activity at these locations remains minimal, consistent with constrained trade driven primarily by ship-to-ship (STS) transfer events rather than conventional terminal loading.
The pattern confirms that Hormuz-adjacent commerce has not ceased entirely but has shifted to a lower-throughput, higher-friction operating model. STS event frequency at Fujairah and Sohar is tightening as more commodity classes compete for limited offshore transfer windows. The UAE remains the only MEG-origin sulphur exporter with confirmed Strait crossings, with a small number of transits documented in May 2026, likely obligated under long-term contracts.
On the Refined Products Side
The product market context reinforces the tightening picture. Over 70 chemical carrier movements are observed globally across the same period, with the US Gulf Coast, East Asia, and the Baltic as the primary loading regions. The shift away from MEG-origin loadings is consistent with the broader disruption pattern documented in VesselTracker's prior analysis of European clean product flows and bunker market reconfiguration.
For refined products, the situation is structurally similar: diesel and gasoil have adapted through Atlantic Basin substitution, but specialty chemicals and industrial feedstocks lack the same substitution depth. Where diesel found alternative corridors within weeks, sulphur and acid supply chains are still searching for viable replacement routes at scale.
Rebalancing Scenario
Based on observable flows, the market is unlikely to rebalance through substitution alone. MEG supplied a substantial share of global traded sulphur prior to the conflict. Replacement corridors are constrained by Indian export ban risk, limited US spot availability, smelter capacity limitations in Europe, and freight economics on long-haul acid shipments. A sustained resolution would require either restored Hormuz access, the lifting of at least one major export ban, or demand reduction in downstream copper and fertilizer production sufficient to reduce feedstock requirements.
Takeaway
Sulphur and sulphuric acid markets are in structural deficit with no rapid path to rebalancing. Prices are rising. Trade is occurring, but through constrained, higher-cost corridors operating at a fraction of prior MEG scale.
With regular flows from traditional suppliers effectively severed, it is critical for traders and procurement teams to maintain observation over emerging viable routes. Corridors connecting Africa with the Americas for sulphur, India with South America and Saudi Arabia's west coast for acid, and Indian sulphur redirecting from China to Southeast Asian nickel operations all represent observable adaptations visible in VesselTracker's cockpit. Whether these corridors can scale to offset the structural deficit, or remain constrained by capacity and policy risk, will determine how long the current tightness persists.
