Heavy-Sour Arrivals Double
Venezuelan crude deliveries into the United States have more than doubled since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early March 2026. Wood Mackenzie's waterborne crude import tracking records over 430 Venezuelan-origin cargoes arriving at US ports, with monthly deliveries rising from 15-16 cargoes in January and February to over 30 per month since March. The sharpest acceleration, to 38 cargoes in March, coincides directly with the loss of MEG heavy-sour supply to global markets.
Three grades dominate: Boscan (extra-heavy, high sulphur), Merey (heavy-sour blend), and Hamaca (upgraded heavy). These are the closest available substitutes for MEG medium-sour and heavy-sour barrels that US Gulf Coast coking and deep-conversion refineries require. Lighter Atlantic Basin crudes (WTI, Guyana Liza, Brazilian pre-salt) cannot replace these grades in units designed for heavy-sour throughput. The primary competitive displacement is against other heavy-sour suppliers into the US Gulf: Mexican Maya, Colombian Castilla, and to a lesser extent Brazilian heavy grades. If Venezuelan intake continues at 30+ cargoes per month, volumes from these producers face margin compression or redirection to alternative buyers. Colombia and Mexico, both traditional US Gulf suppliers of heavy-sour feedstock, are the most directly exposed to Venezuelan market share gains in this grade bracket.
Export Changes
As US Gulf Coast refiners absorb Venezuelan barrels to fill coking unit demand, Atlantic Basin crudes that would otherwise have competed for Gulf Coast refinery slots are increasingly redirected toward Asia. This displacement is visible in Wood Makcenzie's crude loadings data, where Westridge (TMX), Galveston, and Corpus Christi lightering areas collectively loaded over 70 cargoes for East Asian discharge in April and May, with South Korea, China, and Japan as primary destinations. The system loop is therefore: Venezuelan heavy fills the US quality gap, US and Canadian grades flow east to Asia, and Asian refineries process these into clean products that partially re-export westward to Europe. Each link adds freight, time, and cost, but the chain is functioning.
Takeaways
Venezuelan crude flows into US ports are elevated and stable at over 30 cargoes per month since March 2026, more than double the January-February baseline according to Wood Mackenzie's tracking.
The acceleration is demand-driven. US Gulf refiners are pulling heavy-sour Venezuelan barrels to replace contracted MEG feedstock that is no longer arriving. If Hormuz normalises, the incentive to maximise Venezuelan intake diminishes and volumes would likely revert toward the 15-16 cargo baseline.
Scale is supplementary, not transformative. Even at 30+ monthly cargoes into the US alone, Venezuelan supply partially offsets the MEG loss for specific refinery configurations but does not resolve the broader global crude deficit. Venezuela supplements the rebalancing; it does not replace what Hormuz removed.
For comprehensive waterborne crude import, export and intra-PADD movement data, connect with Wood Mackenzie's North American Waterborne Crude Report.
