Following the postponement of formal adoption, IMO member states continued negotiations throughout 2026, leaving key elements of the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) Net Zero Framework (NZF) unresolved ahead of the 30 November meeting. Delegates are expected to use the session to bridge remaining differences and convert the framework into binding measures. If adopted, an estimated one to two year implementation period would follow before compliance obligations take effect.
Multiple competing proposals have emerged throughout 2026, pulling negotiations in different directions. Member states remain divided between levy-based approaches and market-based compliance mechanisms, with disagreement centred on how best to incentivise emissions reductions while maintaining competitiveness across the global fleet. The proposed GHG pricing range of US$100/tCO2e to US$380/tCO2e remains a key point of contention.
Corridor instability complicates implementation regardless of which proposal prevails. Forced diversions via the Cape of Good Hope are adding voyage days and augmenting the very emissions the NZF targets. Bunkering infrastructure built to support alternative fuels must operate in ports exposed to the same geopolitical volatility currently closing transit corridors. Route durability is not a planning assumption 2026 supports.
The NZF is designed to push the fleet toward LNG and other alternative fuels, but until the NZF is adopted, funding remains a clear gap. A separate mechanism aimed at also accelerating alternative fuel deployment is taking shape in the EU: its recent July 2026 revision of the Emissions Trading System would reserve 110 million allowances, about €15 billion according to the Commission, from 2028 to 2040, to close part of the cost gap between fossil and sustainable fuels [SOURCE: WM-PROPRIETARY | Carbon Management Team | 2026-08].
Even with all this uncertainty, Wood Mackenzie projects marine LNG will displace about 0.6 million b/d of conventional bunker fuel by 2035 [SOURCE: WM-PROPRIETARY | IMO 2050 Outlook for Global Marine Fuels | 2025-07].
The November vote will determine whether fuel-switching investment receives the regulatory certainty the framework was designed to provide, or whether another deferral extends uncertainty for a sector already navigating disrupted trade corridors.
For real-time vessel tracking, waterborne flow analytics and carbon pricing intelligence, connect with Wood Mackenzie's Waterborne and Carbon Management teams.
