Markets now require clear visibility on Venezuelan crude export cadence following Washington's 28 August announcement of a joint venture covering 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. Wood Mackenzie's voyage tracking establishes the pre-deal baseline: since interim authorities reinstated commercial management over Venezuelan crude assets in January 2026, exports have consistently exceeded approximately 700,000 b/d, peaking near 1 million b/d across March to June.
Through the first 15 days of July, April remained the strongest exporting month at approximately 1.15 million b/d. Merey grade dominated export volumes, followed by Hamaca, Boscan and other blends. Chevron remains the top charterer, with Merey the leading grade and North America the leading destination region. These are the reference points against which any concession-driven ramp will register.
The export dynamic carries a refining dependency worth monitoring. Heavy Venezuelan grades require diluents to move effectively, and Wood Mackenzie's tracking shows fuel oil exports and naphtha imports following the same monthly pattern as crude, consistent with grade and subproduct requirements. A sustained export increase therefore implies rising refined-product import flows alongside it.
The second variable is destination split. What share moves to global markets versus the US Gulf Coast refining complex, which converts heavy sour barrels into products for re-export, determines the deal's actual market impact. Wood Mackenzie's maritime team tracks both the crude cadence and the associated product flows.
Trump's activation of proven reserves points to crude flows holding above 700,000 b/d, potentially reaching historical maximums. Week-over-week monitoring will reveal how quickly regulatory approvals and infrastructure constraints align to support higher production.
For comprehensive waterborne crude import, export and intra-PADD movement data, connect with Wood Mackenzie's North American Waterborne Crude Report.
