The non-renewal of the U.S. sanctions waiver on Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), majority-owned by Russia's Gazprom Neft with a 56.15% stake, represents a quantifiable shock to Serbian energy security. The potential consequence: a forced transition from low-cost domestic refining to high-cost imported petroleum products, could fundamentally alter the region's energy economics.
Serbia's sole operational refinery at Pančevo, which Wood Mackenzie monitoring shows having a capacity of approximately 98,065 b/d, now faces shutdown risk. The facility processes the majority of Serbia's refined petroleum needs, making its potential closure a systemic vulnerability.
The current sanctions demand that Russia's state-run Gazprom Neft exit its position in Serbia's refining sector. Ownership has not changed and the Pančevo facility could be left without crude supply. Furthermore, the refinery currently has a three-year supply contract with Croatian crude pipeline operator JANAF.
The sanctions' impact crystallized in early October 2025 when the tanker Maran Helios, carrying an estimated 900,000 bbls of Kazakhstani KEBCO crude from Novorossiysk, was blocked at Croatia's Omišalj terminal. This cargo, tracked by VesselTracker, represented more than a week's worth of Pančevo's operational crude requirements.
The shipment was denied transit through the JANAF pipeline system, exposing the critical vulnerability of Serbia's singular crude oil supply artery.
For ongoing monitoring and operational planning, VesselTracker remain essential, providing real-time visibility into vessel movements.
