Despite intensifying global enforcement efforts, the maritime "shadow fleet" transporting sanctioned oil continues to expand and evolve, maintaining downward pressure on global energy prices. Today, about 1,423 tankers are now facilitating sanctioned oil trade from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, with the fleet adding 2.1 million deadweight tons in just September and October 2025. The most alarming trend is the acceleration of evasion tactics: 80% of vessels sanctioned in 2025 have re-flagged, with the average time to flag change dropping from 267 days in 2018 to just 64 days today.
Operators are increasingly using sophisticated techniques including dual AIS systems, fabricated IMO numbers, and identity theft,with 46 cases of vessels using scrapped IMO numbers recorded in October-November 2025 alone, up from 19 cases in the same period in 2024.
Recent enforcement actions, including Germany's seizure of the €40 million-laden tanker Eventin and coordinated attacks on shadow fleet vessels in the Black Sea and off Senegal, have done little to stem the tide. With technical management concentrated in the UAE, China, and India (representing nearly 50% of operations), and Iran and Venezuela actively acquiring more vessels, the shadow fleet ensures millions of barrels of discounted sanctioned crude continue reaching Asian markets daily.
This sustained supply, combined with recovering Red Sea traffic (Bab el Mandeb up 24% year-on-year) and a parallel LPG shadow fleet that moved $6.3 billion worth of Iranian gas in 2024, keeps global oil & gas markets well-supplied and prices range-bound, effectively neutralizing sanctions designed to constrain these producers' revenues.
