The EU’s sweeping 17th and 18th sanctions packages have reshaped global energy trade. Key impacts include:
- Oil price cap reduced from $60 to $47.60/barrel
- 444 “shadow fleet” vessels now blacklisted (up from just 27 in 2022)
- Russian fossil fuel revenues fell 18% in Q2 2025
- The “refining loophole” closed — no more Russian crude disguised as third-country products
The market is fragmenting into parallel systems.
Russia is pivoting toward China (now 38% of its exports) and strengthening ties with Venezuela and Iran. Meanwhile, Western companies face a surge in compliance complexity.
Key compliance challenges:
- Real-time tracking of 444 sanctioned vessels using flags of convenience
- Enhanced due diligence for crude sourced from China, India, and Turkey
- Monitoring opaque ownership structures and ship-to-ship transfers
Bottom Line:
Russia isn’t collapsing — it’s consolidating around sanctioned allies, building an alternative energy network that bypasses Western systems.
Russian crude flows are evolving under the weight of sanctions, rerouting through alternative corridors and reshaping global trade dynamics. For a deeper dive into waterborne crude and refined product movements, explore our Wood Mackenzie Waterborne Crude & Refined Products Reports.
